Yes, tom. you're right. the ceiling is much difference but overall noise looks similar.
anyway, I did some more tests.
I modeled a bit simple scene and rendered it 30min with each other settings.
1. Skydome lit only. sl 17.21
-> it's just for comparison and it's too noisy with high sl
2. IBL sl 16.00 -> I used common sky hdri (it was bundled with maxwell 1.7)
this hdri has no sharp sun so the shadow is not my taste.
3. Physical sky sun only sl 16.13 iso400 f5.6 shutter 1/60
noisy but it shows high contrast and reflection
4. emitter only sl 14.84
clean image with glossy materials even though short rendertime. good but I need pretty sunshine and sun shadow
5. emitter + physical with multilight sl 14.38
very noisy due to sunlight noise
5-1 the same with above (emitter + physical), but I did lowered physical intensity and higher emitter intensity -> much better
6 emitter + faked sun (sphere) with multilight sl 14.84
6-1 the same with above, but I enabled only sphere emitter -> this make the whole scene noisy like physical sun
in case of faked sun, there are some problem with preview image, see below
and one thing
This is old test with physical sky,sun only
And this is the image lit by physical sky.sun and one big emitter behind the camera position